Overview
Funding:
National Trust Eco Fund
Timeframe:
11/04/2018 – 10/07/2018
Budget:
Contractors:
BSERC, Bulgaria
Description
BSERC was awarded a contract by the National Trust Eco Fund to develop a forecast for an Overall Energy Balance for the period 2021 – 2030 and with horizon till 2050 in connection with the preparation of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Bulgaria, in accordance with the requirements of the Regulation of the European Parliament and the Council on the governance of the European Union (Regulation EU 2018/1999).
The energy balance based on a combination of projections for production and import of energy carriers, necessary for ensuring the consumption of fuels and energy in the country, and examined the development of energy consumption in all sectors of economy – industry, transport, households, agriculture, services.
Results
Three main scenarios were elaborated:
- “Zero decarbonization”, in which the existing policies and measures at European and national levels are maintained;
- “Low decarbonization”, which implies partial implementation of the Decision (EU) 2017/1442 for the formulation of Best Available Techniques for the large combustion plants by the existing TPPs and construction of new reserve capacities; and
- High decarbonization with full implementation of the Decision (EU) 2017/1442 and construction of new reserve capacities.
Additionally, “High decarbonization with nuclear power” scenario was added to assess the system’s capabilities if it included four nuclear units of 1000 MW.